Nfl Playoff Picture: Patriots In The Driver's Seat For Afc's Top Seed

NFL playoff picture: Patriots in the driver's seat for AFC's top seed originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Here’s a statement you definitely didn’t expect to hear when the season began: The New England Patriots have the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the AFC after 12 games.

That’s the improbable reality for New England, which became the first NFL team to reach 10 wins Sunday by edging the Bengals 26-20 in Cincinnati.

The victory came at a price, as starting left tackle Will Campbell and starting left guard Jared Wilson both are expected to miss time due to injuries. But the Patriots still have plenty working in their favor — namely a relatively easy schedule down the stretch.

Just two of New England’s final five opponents have winning records (the 7-4 Buffalo Bills and 6-5 Baltimore Ravens). The club’s other three opponents — the New York Giants, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins — have eight wins combined. The Patriots also have a bye in Week 14 (after a Monday night matchup with the 2-10 Giants).

Of course, no wins in the NFL are guaranteed, as the Bengals proved by nearly upsetting New England on Sunday. But as you’ll see below, the Patriots have a much easier path to the No. 1 seed on paper than their closest AFC competitors.

Here’s a look the AFC playoff picture, from current standings to the race for seeding to current postseason matchups if the season ended today:

Current AFC Standings

The Patriots are the new No. 1 seed in the AFC after the 9-2 Broncos had a bye week and the Indianapolis Colts lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime.

1. New England Patriots (10-2, AFC East leader)
2. Denver Broncos (9-2, AFC West leader)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3, AFC South leader)
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-5, AFC North leader)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)
9. Houston Texans (6-5)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)

Race for the No. 1 seed

The Patriots hold pole position (for now), but the Broncos and Colts are still close on their heels, especially given the current tiebreaker situation.

Tiebreakers for teams with the same record in the conference are 1) head-to-head record, 2) in-conference record and 3) record versus common opponents. New England doesn’t play Denver or Indy this season, and at the moment, all three teams have 6-2 records against AFC competition. All three teams also play exactly two games against AFC teams over the next four weeks, so those results are worth monitoring closely.

Again, the Patriots should benefit from an easier road ahead: All six of the Colts’ remaining games are against teams with winning records, while four of the Broncos’ six remaining opponents have winning records.

That may explain why The Athletic’s playoff predictor model gives the Patriots a 57 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed, compared to just 27 percent for the Broncos and 8 percent for the Colts.

Race for the AFC East

The Houston Texans did the Patriots a massive favor by defeating the Bills on Thursday night, as New England now has a 2.5-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East. The Patriots host the Bills three weeks from now on Dec. 14, and it’s very possible they could clinch the division with a win in that game.

Even if New England loses to Buffalo, it should be in good shape to win the division. After head-to-head matchup, the second tiebreaker for divisional opponents is in-division record. The Patriots are currently 3-0 against the AFC East, while Buffalo is 2-2 after losing to New England and the Miami Dolphins.

So, if the Patriots beat the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18, they’d finish 5-1 in the division and have a tiebreaker over the Bills by default.

Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for New England and Buffalo:

• Patriots: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
• Bills: at Steelers, vs. Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets

Current playoff matchups

If the season ended today, here’s what the AFC Wild Card round would look like:

• No. 1 Patriots: BYE
• No. 2 Denver Broncos vs. No. 7 Bills
• No. 3 Indianapolis Colts vs. No. 6 Jacksonville Jaguars
• No. 4 Baltimore Ravens vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers

Getting a first-round bye would be massive for the Patriots, especially Campbell and/or Wilson are still dealing with their respective injuries. New England hasn’t earned the top seed in the conference since the 2017 season, when it went to the Super Bowl before losing to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Patriots’ opponent in the Divisional Round would be the lowest seed to advance out of the AFC Wild Card round. So in this scenario, they’d face either the No. 7 Bills, the No. 6 Jaguars or the winner of the Ravens-Chargers game if Denver and Indy both win.