Nba Rumors: New Lottery Rule Helps Utah, Hurts Grizzlies

New rumors about the upcoming lottery changes have leaked and were reported by Kevin O’Connor. In that reporting, some questions have been answered about changes to different pick streaks, namely: can teams pick 1st in the draft multiple times, and how often can teams pick in the top-5? Here’s what O’Connor reported:

“… there is also a rule stating that no team can land first in two consecutive drafts, or in the top five in three consecutive drafts.”

That obviously resolves a problem with a team like the San Antonio Spurs having three top-4 picks in three years. But in vintage Adam Silver fashion, by solving that problem, he’s created another unforeseen one. From O’Connor, Silver and the NBA have “decided to start the clock on these two-year and three-year streaks by looking back to the 2025 and 2026 drafts, according to league sources.” O’Connor goes on to explain:

In practice, this would mean if Washington wins the lottery again in 2027, it moves to second.

Makes sense, right? Yes ….

But what about teams that own the rights to picks from other teams? According to O’Connor:

The streak attaches to the original team, according to league sources. In other words, if Team A has Team B’s pick in the 2027 draft as a result of a trade and that Team B pick lands first, then Team B’s own pick in 2028 would not be eligible to land first, whether it’s retained by Team B or owned by a different team. But Team A, by virtue of selecting first using Team B’s pick in 2027, would still be eligible to pick first in 2028 with its own pick or any other team’s pick.

“In the event a team’s pick is drawn in the lottery in a position where it is not permitted to be, then such team’s pick would be moved down to the first permissible position,” the league wrote in its proposal sent to teams. Continuing the above example, this would mean that if Team B popped up first in the 2028 draft, that pick would automatically be moved to the second pick instead.

Additionally, the NBA has decided to start the clock on these two-year and three-year streaks by looking back to the 2025 and 2026 drafts, according to league sources. In practice, this would mean if Washington wins the lottery again in 2027, it moves to second.

O’Connor goes on to say the retroactive rules are not to give an advantage to a team like the Wizards, who just won the 1st pick, otherwise they’d be at an advantage other teams won’t have. (I guess they are just going to ignore the Spurs thing…).

But this rule has crazy ramifications for the Utah Jazz-Memphis Grizzlies trade that landed Jaren Jackson Jr. in Utah. This new rule, because of the retroactive stipulation, means the pick that Utah traded to the Grizzlies can’t land in the top-5 of the draft. O’Connor explains it well, so I’m putting his explanation here:

The top-five pick rule will date back to 2025. The Utah Jazz picked fifth in 2025 and second in 2026. Under the new rule, they can’t land in the top five in 2027.

But the Jazz traded that pick to the Memphis Grizzlies in February for Jaren Jackson Jr., which means Memphis won’t be able to receive it since streaks will be triggered by the original team, not the team holding the pick. Two issues here.

First, the framework. The NBA explains this rule under a section titled “Pick Restrictions For Repeat Lottery Winners.” Is landing the fifth pick really a winner? One year ago, the Jazz were distraught when their pick landed fifth, because the true franchise-changers that teams want to win are commonly landed with the first or second pick. In the future, if a team ends up fifth one year, then fourth the next, should they really be punished for landing first in the third year? Or even fifth again? I would argue no, that the top-five rule reaches too far.

I am understanding of wanting to prevent a team from picking first in consecutive years. But anything beyond that feels like a massive overreach that could cause more problems than intended when the goal is supposed to be to eliminate tanking.

Second, there’s the reality that the Jazz did trade that pick. Now the Grizzlies have it — through the rights of a pick-swap structure. But if this rule passes, Memphis wouldn’t be able to receive an unprotected pick. Grizzlies fans would obviously be crushed by the news. This pick was the most valuable of the assets Memphis got back for one of its stars, and it happened under a set of rules that didn’t include a three-year streak cap. That Jazz-to-Grizzlies pick is being retroactively devalued because of a league’s arbitrary decision to start the clock in 2025, but it also gives us an example of what could happen in future years to any team.

I agree with O’Connor that this is not fair for the Memphis Grizzlies, and doesn’t really do anything for Utah other than knowing that there’s no way they get burned by the Jaren Jackson Jr. trade. It does help with optics if the Jazz look incredible next year. In reality, it’s hard to see the Jazz being anything other than a top team in the Western Conference and in the playoffs. The Grizzlies weren’t likely to get a lottery pick, anyway. It’s still frustrating if you’re a Grizzlies fan, I’m sure.

But it’s not all smooth sailing for Utah. Let’s say the Jazz want to make another trade this season or later. Having their last two picks in the top 5 means there may be teams reticent to trade with the Jazz.

Then again…

This also means Utah’s future-owned picks from the Cavs and Wolves remain safe from any issues, so that’s another positive for the Jazz.

All in all, this seems like a rule that could have bad outcomes for the Grizzlies, but those outcomes seem unlikely. For Utah, they get to draft either AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, or Cam Boozer come draft night and there’s not much reason to worry about much else.