Trump Maintains Narrow Lead In Key Battleground States, Nyt Poll Finds
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in five of six key battleground states, according to new polling from the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College, even as Democratic Senate candidates lead their Republican challengers in the same states.
The new polls, released Monday morning, found Trump leading Biden among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia, with all but the latter two results within the margin of the error. Biden led narrowly among likely voters in Michigan, also within the margin of error. The results by state in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters were:
- 49-43 in favor of Trump in Arizona
- 50-41 Trump in Georgia
- 51-38 Trump in Nevada
- 48-45 Trump in Pennsylvania
- 47-46 Trump in Wisconsin
- 47-46 in favor of Biden in Michigan
Among all registered voters, Biden led in Wisconsin but not Michigan.
The polling found Trump making significant improvements among young voters and voters of color compared to 2020, with as many voters between the ages of 18 and 29 saying they would support the former president as back Biden. Hispanic voters were also split roughly equally, while around 20 percent of Black voters across the six states indicated support for Trump.
The surveys also found that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the anti-vaccine activist attempting to mount a nationwide independent campaign, drew a similar level of support from both Biden and Trump. Kennedy has officially made the ballot in Michigan and is attempting to do so in other key states too.
The poll results largely resembled previous Times-Siena polling and other polls from last fall that found Trump with a narrow advantage, suggesting that a rush of recent campaign developments — including Trump and Biden officially locking up their parties’ nominations, a massive Biden ad campaign in swing states, and the start of Trump’s criminal hush money trial in New York — may not have had a significant effect in the polls.
Spokespeople for Biden and Trump did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
One bright spot for Democrats in the polling was Senate level results. In four presidential swing states with Senate races — Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Democratic candidates maintained leads over their Republican opponents, although all but Wisconsin were within the margin of error.
The polls surveyed a total of nearly 4,100 voters across the 6 states from April 28-May 9. The margin of error for each state ranged from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points.
