Sinema’s Exit Sparks Rush To The Center In Arizona Senate Race

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s retirement announcement Tuesday set off a new scramble for her base of independent voters in Arizona’s hotly contested Senate race.

In a state where the late centrist maverick Sen. John McCain dominated politics for decades, they could prove to be decisive.

After the Democrat-turned-independent declared that she will not seek a second term — a move that transforms the contest into a two-way battle between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake — both parties insisted their candidate would benefit. But to do so, they will likely be forced to pivot hard to the center.

Gallego already had been moving in that direction. He quietly ended his membership in the Congressional Progressive Caucus at the end of last year, according to a person familiar with his decision who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

Lake has also been drifting toward the center, making overtures to the moderate wing of the Arizona Republican Party that she viciously attacked during her 2022 governor campaign.

Underscoring how significant she viewed Sinema’s departure, Lake stepped up her efforts on Tuesday.

“John McCain was an incredible veteran,” Lake told reporters in the Capitol, where she was visiting when Sinema revealed her retirement. “Anybody who wants to vote for me, anybody who in the past hasn't, I've extended an olive branch. We’ve got to come together.”

Both candidates, however, face clear hurdles in selling those moderate bona fides to an unabashedly swing state — in a presidential year no less, where Arizona will be awash with politicking.

Lake still has the baggage from her 2022 governor run, when she vehemently denied the validity of the 2020 election election. And she is still sticking to some of the rhetoric. Asked by reporters Tuesday if she believed that Joe Biden and now-Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, had won the state, Lake quipped: “Next question.” She also said the Arizona election had been “really rigged.”

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), a battle-tested swing-seat Democrat, said that while he’s confident Gallego can appeal to moderates, Lake has had a “hard time doing that.”

But Senate Republicans — even the relative moderates among them — say Gallego’s progressive record will be a tough sell in his home state.

Gallego decided to challenge Sinema, after all, out of anger that the Arizona independent was stymying key Democratic legislative priorities. And he was urged on by progressives when he did so.

Gallego’s website listed him as a member of the Progressive Caucus until Tuesday evening. That membership line has since been removed, and he is no longer listed on the Progressive Caucus’ membership page.

“Gallego is a liberal, I mean an extreme liberal in a state that's a John McCain conservative state. So I think that should help her,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) of Lake.

Shortly after Sinema’s announcement, Gallego released a statement thanking her for her service and making an appeal to voters across the political spectrum. And he has aligned himself with the Senator legislatively too. Gallego came out quickly for the bipartisan border deal that Sinema helped craft after Senate Republicans walked away from their own proposal, effectively dooming it. In a post on X, Gallego said the deal wasn’t perfect but “that’s the reality of compromise in a divided government.”

While leaders from both parties eagerly highlighted data that shows their candidate prevailing with Sinema out of the race, Democrats believe that her roots in their party makes it more likely that her base will gravitate toward Gallego.

Polls have painted a murky picture. Some show Gallego with the lead in a two-way race, like one from Arizona-based pollster Mike Noble in February that found Gallego leading in a head-to-head matchup with Lake by 10 points. Another from Public Policy Polling in January showed Lake leading by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup with Gallego, with 10 percent of respondents unsure of who’d they support.

Still, it’s early. And neither candidate has actually won their party’s nomination yet, though Gallego is running effectively unopposed. Conservative sheriff Mark Lamb is still running for the Republican Senate nomination in Arizona, but Lake leads him by an overwhelming margin.

Had Sinema decided to run for reelection, it would have complicated the playing field for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, which generally supports incumbents by default. But shortly after Sinema’s announcement, top Democrats and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair coalesced around their de facto nominee.

“We are fully behind his candidacy and look forward to winning this race with him in 2024 and defeating Kari Lake,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

Lake, meanwhile, has been racking up endorsements from GOP senators and told reporters Tuesday that she was actively courting more. Lake said she’d secured “a couple more” endorsements on Tuesday that would be announced this week.

“I'm here to meet with every Republican senator,” Lake said. “And hey, if there's a few Democrats who want to meet … I'm not afraid to sit down with people I disagree with.”