Iran Escalation Wears At Gulf Alliance

As the U.S. continues daily strikes on Iran, the Arab states battered by Tehran’s retaliatory attacks are trying to unite to chart a path toward peace. Longstanding tensions are getting in the way.

In recent weeks, top ministers in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have posed for a photo showing their countries are reconciling; Jordan and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council have had meetings at the State Department and on Capitol Hill; and the GCC has issued a torrent of joint statements condemning Iranian attacks.

But as much as these countries have a common goal of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, their different priorities in getting there are making it tough to make progress, according to interviews with Arab diplomats, current and former U.S. officials and others familiar with regional dynamics.

That includes a series of conflicting interests based on who has alternatives to shipping via the waterway, whose infrastructure is most entangled with Iran’s, and which country’s economy is bleeding the hardest during the crisis.

“They’re working together to visit Congress and the State Department, to coordinate their messages,” said an Iraqi official, granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. “But they are not on the same page.”

The Gulf Cooperation Council — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — was founded in 1981 in the shadow of the Iran-Iraq war and already had disputes heading into the current conflict. The Iran war is bringing those to the fore.

“They’ve got a lot to get over and the war has exacerbated extant divisions in the Gulf,” said David Schenker, who handled Middle Eastern affairs at the State Department in the first Trump administration.

One of the most visible signs of internal rifts during the last months came when the UAE pulled out of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel in April, at least in part related to divisions over the Iran war. A diplomat from an Arab country outside the Gulf, granted anonymity to describe behind-the-scenes tensions, argued the UAE’s withdrawal “truly angered other countries, specifically Saudi Arabia. The Gulf will no longer be the same as it was before.”

“The GCC is nonfunctional,” the person said.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE didn’t respond to questions on their relationship or the GCC.

The divides in Iran’s neighborhood make getting any kind of diplomatic solution to the war, or effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, significantly more difficult. Some want to go harder against Iran, while others want to prioritize opening the strait.

“I don’t think they could bring the war to a close, but they could be more productive in managing the consequences of the war,” said Allison Minor, who served as director for Yemen and Oman on the National Security Council in the first Trump administration. She said Gulf countries could work with European countries to monitor the Strait of Hormuz, and help convince Beijing to quietly use its leverage to pressure Iran into opening the waterway.

The renewed U.S. bombing campaign over the past two weeks is adding urgency for the Gulf nations to find a way to work together. Iran has retaliated with strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and its Houthi proxies in Yemen have attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. By Friday, the coalition led by Saudi Arabia said it struck sites belonging to the Houthis in response.

A strong and united GCC might be able to repel incoming fire better together, and possibly get more sway in future ceasefire talks, said retired Navy Vice Adm. John “Fozzie” Miller, who previously commanded the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

“What they see is the need for this to be resolved in a way that doesn't leave them holding the bag,” Miller said.

Asked about the strength of the Gulf Cooperation Council, White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said, “The United States maintains excellent relations with all the GCC countries, and President [Donald] Trump has forged strong partnerships with each of their leaders.”

Bahrain said in a statement, “The security of the GCC states is indivisible — a threat to one is a threat to all. That shared understanding underpins our coordination.”

The GCC and its other individual member states didn’t respond to questions. Jordan also didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February startled Arab states along the Persian Gulf, but Iran’s punishing retaliatory attacks seemed to divide the bloc rather than unite it.

“The Omanis were the most accommodating of Iran. The Qataris somewhat less so but still engaging and mediating. The UAE was the most prepared to get involved in a muscular way. Saudi was in the middle,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney.

Oman initially appeared to be negotiating an arrangement with Iran to charge tolls in the strait, which Trump shut down in May. “Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up,” he told reporters.

On the other side, the UAE and Saudi Arabia both reportedly launched airstrikes and drone attacks on Iran, and the UAE was said to have doubled down on its defense ties with Israel.

The Gulf countries’ different priorities have stemmed in part from their different vulnerabilities. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman could bypass the Strait of Hormuz to export their oil and gas. Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain could not.

One senior Republican aide attended a recent House Foreign Affairs Committee roundtable with Gulf countries and Jordan. The aide, granted anonymity to describe an off-record meeting, said countries were all concerned about being targeted by Iran and were asking for additional weapons shipments.

But, “some were more on the same page with the U.S. mission than others,” the aide said.

Disagreement over the war has played out over a landscape with plenty of historic hurts. Late last year, Saudi Arabia bombed Yemen after a weapons shipment from the UAE arrived in the country. The two rivals are also on opposing sides of the conflictin Sudan. And it’s only in the past few years that Saudi Arabia and the UAE ended a blockade of Qatar.

The MOU the U.S. and Iran signed on June 15 appeared to bring the regional countries together in a new way, according to Ratney. “At a certain point, they all just wanted the oil and gas moving, having concluded that the various war goals weren’t going to materialize,” he said.

But now, as the region tilts further toward all-out war, mistrust remains high, Minor said.

“Each country is afraid that the other country is funneling cash to Tehran not to hit them, and that it could come at the expense of their neighbors,” she said. Reuters reported in Junethat the UAE planned to release billions of dollars to Iran. Abu Dhabi denied it.

And as Qatar has floated a ceasefire to cool the atmosphere, Kuwait and Bahrain reportedly hit targets in Iran. “There’s no unity in the GCC. The best you could hope for is coordination,” said Nate Swanson, who negotiated with Iran on behalf of the Biden and Trump administrations.

Further complicating the picture is a split in the U.S. over how to interact with countries in the region, according to Matthew Kroenig, who advised the Pentagon on global defense strategy in the first Trump administration.

“The White House itself does value the relationships with the Gulf including Saudi, the UAE. They were proud of the Abraham Accords and criticized the Biden administration for being too tough against the Saudis,” he said. On the other hand, the Pentagon was more profoundly against getting into a forever war. By their logic, “cutting our losses and letting countries in the region deal with it would not be a bad outcome.”

The Pentagon called the characterization “false,” while the White House said the administration “falls in line” to carry out Trump’s decisions.

If Gulf countries do manage to unite, it would largely be to avoid being picked off by Iran one by one — but there could also be a shared disappointment in the Trump administration, said Douglas Silliman, who served as U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait.

“There is a growing understanding they need to cooperate more than they have been,” he said. “Everybody is frustrated. I’m beginning to hear anger at the U.S.”

At the least, Gulf countries are clamoring for a seat at the table. After the GCC hosted Secretary of State Marco Rubio at a council meeting in Bahrain in June, the Gulf council’s Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi stressed that aspect.

"During the meeting, it was emphasized that any future understandings or arrangements must incorporate the requirements of the GCC countries in order to safeguard their interests,” Albudaiwi said. His comment didn’t appear in the State Department summary of the meeting.

Gulf states are also trying to build out new infrastructure to adapt to a new reality in which the Strait of Hormuz is not reliably open. The UAE is building a new pipeline to the Indian Ocean port city of Fujairah. The state-owned Kuwaiti KPC is in discussions with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to move its crude and oil through their pipelines.

But any of these new projects will be subject to Iranian fire if the war is not brought to a close. The Houthi attack on Saudi tankers Thursday cast doubt on the overland pipeline Riyadh already uses to divert oil away from the Strait of Hormuz.

There is no end in sight. White House spokesperson Wales said, “These devastating blows will continue until the president deems otherwise.”

Nahal Toosi contributed to this report.