Dems Say 'uncommitted' Vote Means Biden Needs Facetime In Michigan

Democratic leaders nationally and in Michigan are urging Joe Biden to show up in communities upset about his handling of the Israel-Hamas war — a step the president resisted taking in the run-up to the state primary this week.

That election exposed Biden’s potential vulnerability on the issue, as more than 100,000 people cast “uncommitted” protest ballots rather than support the president.

Though Biden won the primary handily, Democrats fear that even a modest sliver of defectors could doom him in the state. One in eight Democrats voted against his candidacy. They believe the president must show up in order to earn their trust back before November.

“Please, heed our calls, take us seriously,” said Michigan state Sen. Darrin Camilleri, who supports an immediate cease-fire and backs Biden in November. “Not only address the ceasefire, but please show up and engage our communities because Michigan can’t be taken for granted.”

Camilleri’s point was echoed by congressional lawmakers from Michigan who were granted anonymity to discuss the campaign strategy candidly without offending the White House. One lawmaker said Biden “needs to spend time with” those angry over his approach to the war.

“He needs to listen. He’s got to show them he’s really real about getting a ceasefire,” the lawmaker continued. “I think we need some more empathy and compassion, not blow this off.”

Another House Democratic member from Michigan called on Biden to directly engage disaffected communities, specifically Arab American voters, because it can’t be “easily answered in large addresses or in tweets or in statements. The first step is to listen,” said the member, who was granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly.

Biden campaign advisers privately acknowledged that some of the work in repairing relationships with the Arab American community can only come through the administration, not the campaign. Earlier this month, Biden dispatched top policy advisers to sit down with Arab American leaders, who urged the president to call for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza.

Biden hasn’t returned to the state since a single visit in early February to meet with union workers. There are no current plans to return to the state, but Biden campaign advisers said he will be in Michigan frequently over the next eight months.

Top Democratic operatives say more immediate and direct outreach will be needed.

“There’s a good chunk of ‘uncommitted’ who want to vote for Biden, and they are asking for the permission slip to do so,” said Faiz Shakir, who managed Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. “They’re saying, ‘show me actions and values that bring me back,’ so I do think that’s the opportunity for them.”

But there are signs the effort to re-engage these voters is off to a rocky start. The statement Biden's campaign put out on Tuesday did not mention the conflict in Gaza or the protest vote. By Wednesday morning, a senior campaign adviser released another statement that acknowledged the “emotional, painful, difficult situation” and said that “Biden shares the goal of many of the folks who voted uncommitted, which is a just and lasting peace.”

“Quite frankly, Biden’s statement last night did not unite this party nor seek to unite this party,” said Abbas Alawieh, a spokesperson for the “Listen to Michigan” campaign at a press conference on Wednesday. Alawieh confirmed to POLITICO that the campaign has not received any communication from the Biden White House or the campaign in recent days.

Other Arab American and Muslim leaders cautioned against Biden returning to Michigan without first taking definitive action to halt the war, warning it could only end up alienating voters who already suspect the administration's outreach is being driven purely by politics.

"Unless he’s ready to make changes, I don’t think even a personal visit is going to do any good,” said Salam Al-Marayati, president of the Muslim Public Affairs Council. “Either change the policy or accept the responsibility that they’ve lost this important swing vote.”

While Arab American officials and activists have stressed for months that a permanent ceasefire is the only sure way to ease tensions over the war, they've pushed Biden in recent weeks to take more immediate steps that show he's working toward a resolution, including more clearly breaking with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and intensifying efforts to get more humanitarian aid into Gaza.

On Monday, Biden told reporters he thought a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be in place "by the end of the weekend." He's also escalated his public criticism of the Israeli government, calling its bombardment of Gaza "over the top" and warned against a ground incursion into Rafah.

Yet Biden and his aides have refused to call for a permanent ceasefire, a sticking point that's frustrated Democrats who say it's put the president increasingly out of step with his base.

"It's strange that in 2024 the president who ran on decency, who ran on the ability to empathize with pain and suffering … is reluctant to say 'ceasefire,' as if it's kryptonite," said Abdullah Hammoud, the mayor of Arab-majority Dearborn, Michigan.

In the aftermath of Tuesday’s results, some Democrats have nevertheless debated whether the protest vote was significant enough to even cause concern. A portion of the party has compared it to the margin Barack Obama received when he ran as an unopposed incumbent in 2012. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters on Wednesday downplayed worries that a critical segment of Democrats might stay home in November, insisting that "voters who care about the future of this country will have to make a decision between two diametrically opposed candidates."

But others see the results as the starkest sign yet of the fury that Biden faces from his base over his approach toward Israel. After winning Michigan by a slim margin in 2020 with the help of hundreds of thousands of Arab Americans and young voters, much of that same critical slice of the electorate is now signaling their votes in November are not guaranteed.

In Wayne County, which has the highest concentration of Arab American voters in the country, 17 percent of voters backed “uncommitted.” And inside Dearborn, Mich., where Arab Americans are a majority of the city, three-quarters of voters in many precincts opted for “uncommitted” over Biden. In Washtenaw County, where the University of Michigan is located, another 17 percent of voters backed “uncommitted.”

Many Democrats wish Biden would lean more on his trademark compassion to reach out to those who registered their protest through an "uncommitted" vote.

“President Biden is a different person in the Roosevelt Room than when he’s in conversations with people on the campaign trail, where the emotional elements are more important than the policy, so having more of those moments would help ease tensions,” said John Della Volpe, a pollster who specializes in young voters and advised the 2020 Biden campaign. “Showing up to events where people felt heard and respected.”

But Biden allies still have confidence that by November, when “it’s a choice” between former President Donald Trump and Biden, “they’ll ultimately choose Joe Biden,” said Ron Klain, who served as Biden’s chief-of-staff.

“The president does have political challenges in the Arab American community and he’ll need a strong vote there in the fall,” Klain said. “But when the president gets out on the campaign trail and frames that choice for voters, I don’t think Arab American voters are going to vote for Donald Trump.”

The “Listen to Michigan” campaign, for its part, is pledging to keep up the pressure on Biden. In a memo released Tuesday night, Layla Elabed, the campaign manager, promised protests at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this August.

“Tens of thousands of Michigan Democrats, many of whom who voted for Biden in 2020, are uncommitted to his re-election due to the war in Gaza,” Elabed said. “While we’ve noticed a small shift in language from Biden as a direct result of this campaign’s pressure, we know that his words are not enough. This isn’t a messaging problem, this is a funding bombs problem.”

Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.