California Senate Race: Steve Garvey In ‘statistical Tie’ For First Place With Adam Schiff

Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff and Republican Steve Garvey have separated themselves from Rep. Katie Porter and are poised to advance beyond Tuesday’s primary in the race for the late Dianne Feinstein's California Senate seat, according to a new poll.

Garvey earned the support of 27 percent of likely voters in what is expected to be the final primary poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, followed by Schiff at 25 percent. Porter, who has cried foul at Schiff for running millions of dollars in ads on Fox News to boost Garvey, was at 19 percent.

Porter slipped into third after running neck-and-neck with Garvey in a series of recent polls. In what is shaping up to be a historically low-turnout primary election, poll director Mark DiCamillo said Garvey and Schiff are now polling “in a statistical tie.”

The large increase in Garvey’s voter support occurred in the last six weeks, DiCamillo writes, by consolidating Republican and conservative voters. Schiff, who has amassed a formidable warchest, has spent millions in TV, digital and mail ads featuring Garvey, apparently aimed at Republicans, describing him as a threat to Democrats’ control of Congress.

The race has become the most expensive in the state's history, with Schiff spending and benefiting from nearly $45 million in ads, according to the ad-tracking service AdImpact.

The poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that in a two-way matchup, Schiff would start with a significant lead over Garvey, 53 percent to 38 percent, with 9 percent undecided — whereas a runoff between Schiff and Porter would start out tied.

Garvey, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres who is running his campaign on “common sense, compassion and consensus,” stands almost no chance of winning the election in a runoff. He is vastly underfunded, compared with his Democratic opponents, and California hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office since 2006.

But the 75-year-old is betting on his star power and name recognition to propel him into contention.

"Garvey's half-century bond with Californians transcend politics and will prove to be a formidable force in both the primary and general elections," campaign spokesperson Matt Shupe said in a statement Friday morning.

Garvey is also likely to be the chief beneficiary of a low-turnout scenario, DiCamillo said. Nearly two-thirds of those taking part in the primary election will be voters 50 or older. The primary electorate will also likely include unusually large numbers of homeowners and white voters. The poll also found nearly a third of likely voters in the primary are Republican.

A major part of Garvey’s appeal to primary voters relates to the perception that he will be tougher on the nation’s immigration problem than other candidates. Nearly all of his supporters, 94 percent, said that factor was very important.

The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish from Feb. 22-27 and captured both Californians who have already voted or are likely to vote on Tuesday. Among those who had already cast a ballot, 35 percent supported Schiff, compared with 28 percent for Garvey and 20 percent for Porter.