Sign up for your FREE personalized newsletter featuring insights, trends, and news for America's Active Baby Boomers

Newsletter
New

21 States Where Recession Bells Are Ringing After Unemployment Jumps

Card image cap

Rising unemployment in 21 US states points to a recession later this year, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar says.

Peter Zelei Images/Getty Images

  • Rising unemployment in nearly half of US states points to a recession this year, one economist says.
  • 21 states have seen a jump in joblessness over the last year, Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar told BI.
  • Here are the states signaling a recession is on the way.

Unemployment has risen sharply in nearly half of US states, paving the way for a recession later this year, one top economist says.

Piper Sandler's chief global economist, Nancy Lazar, highlighted 21 states to Business Insider where three-month average unemployment has risen by at least 0.5 percentage points over the past 12 months. The states in question account for over 40% of US GDP.

When unemployment has jumped by that much, in that many states, a recession has almost always followed, Lazar said. The economic indicator is known as the "Sahm Rule."

Here are the 21 states signaling a recession may be on the way:

1. Rhode IslandProvidence, Rhode Island.

Mihai_Andritoiu/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.03%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.63%

Change: +1.40%

2. ConnecticutHartford, Connecticut.

Sean Pavone/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.47%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%

Change: +1.13%

3. Washington

Shutterstock/Edmund Lowe Photography

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.80%

Change: +0.97%

4. Louisiana

Sean Pavone/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.37%

Change: +0.93%

5. MaineBoats docked in Portland, Maine.

Darryl Brooks/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.40%

Change: +0.87%

6. New HampshireConcord, New Hampshire.

Wangkun Jia/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.60%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.80%

Change: +0.80%

7. CaliforniaSan Francisco, California.

Alexander Spatari/Getty Images

Three-month average unemployment rate: 5.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.50%

Change: +0.80%

8. West VirginiaCharleston, West Virginia.

Shutterstock.com

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.30%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.50%

Change: +0.80%

9. OregonSalem, Oregon.

Shutterstock/Victoria Ditkovsky

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.20%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.43%

Change: +0.77%

10. Alabama

Sean Pavone/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.03%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.30%

Change: +0.73%

11. New JerseyJersey City, New Jersey.

Walter Hickey / BI

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.77%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.03%

Change: +0.73%

12. MontanaHelena, Montana.

Matt Volz/AP Photo

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.27%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.53%

Change: +0.73%

13. AlaskaAnchorage, Alaska.

Jacob Boomsma/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.60%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.87%

Change: +0.73%

14. ArkansasLittle Rock, Arkansas.

Walter Bibikow/Getty Images

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%

Change: +0.67%

15. ColoradoDenver, Colorado.

Albert Pego/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.63%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.00%

Change: +0.63%

16. MarylandBaltimore, Maryland.

Sean Pavone/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 2.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 1.90%

Change: +0.60%

17. IllinoisChicago, Illinois.

Luis Boucault/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.80%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.20%

Change: +0.60%

18. OklahomaOklahoma City, Oklahoma.

Paul Brady Photography/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.53%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.97%

Change: +0.57%

19. KentuckyLouisville, Kentucky.

Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 4.50%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 4.00%

Change: +0.50%

20. OhioCincinnati, Ohio.

aceshot1/Shutterstock

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.83%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 3.33%

Change: +0.50%

21. MissouriJefferson City, Missouri.

DenisTangneyJr/Getty Images

Three-month average unemployment rate: 3.33%

Lowest unemployment rate in past 12 months: 2.83%

Change: +0.50%

Read the original article on Business Insider